Taking into account current global trends and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government reevaluated the estimates and forecast of Ukraine’s economic and social development for 2020.
The main changes in the forecast are the result of a major recession in the world’s economy and extensive measures aimed at management and control of COVID-19, both in Ukraine and in most other countries of the world.
As a result, Ukraine’s GDP forecast for this year has been revised – at this point it is expected that GDP will decrease by 3.9% in comparison to 3.7% increase, which was forecasted before the global crisis. The unemployment rate will be 9.4% in comparison to the previously forecasted 8.1%, and the decrease in actual wages will be 0.3%.
At the same time, it is expected that economic growth will be revived starting the second half of the year and will accelerate in the coming years. Among the reasons are high demand for the products of domestic agribusiness in the world, a much more stable banking system compared to previous crisis episodes, lower prices for imported energy products, and continued structural reforms in cooperation with international partners.
Yearly average exchange rate of hryvnia is forecasted to be 29.5 Ukrainian hryvnias per 1.00 US dollar (compared to 27.00 Ukrainian hryvnias per 1.00 US dollar forecasted in October 2019). The rise in consumer prices will only temporarily accelerate to 8.7% (compared to 5.5% in the previous forecast), and will return to the target value of 5% in the coming year.
The adjusted main macroeconomic estimates of Ukraine’s economic and social development for 2020 will be used during the revision of the State Budget for 2020.