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The Government has approved the forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2022-2024

The Government adopted a resolution approving the Forecast of Economic and Social Development of Ukraine for 2022-2024. The forecast was developed by specialists of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine with the participation of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, and other interested public authorities.

It is assumed that in 2022-2024 the economic development will follow the trajectory of accelerating economic growth. Thus, investment demand will grow at the highest rate and the role of bank lending in financing investment projects will increase. State programs of financial assistance, development of housing leasing, creation of proper infrastructure in the capital markets will stimulate the development of business and investment in the economy of Ukraine.

In addition, the three-year forecast envisages a revival of exports of Ukrainian goods and services to foreign markets. The government will continue to take measures to promote Ukrainian exports in foreign markets and reduce barriers to trade by:

  • export support through the creation of insurance, reinsurance, and guarantee mechanisms;
  • reduction of duties on Ukrainian products in key markets through the implementation of the Association Agreement, other agreements on free trade zones, their renewal;
  • use of WTO opportunities, removal of anti-dumping and protective duties that apply to Ukrainian products.

The Government’s measures will also be aimed at increasing incomes and reducing unemployment by stimulating the development of entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized businesses.

Thus, the baseline scenario predicts:

  • GDP growth of 3.8% in 2022, 4.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024;
  • consumer price index (December to December of the previous year) – 106.2% in 2022, 105.3% in 2023 and 105% in 2024;
  • increase in real average monthly wages of employees at 4.4% in 2022, by 6.1% in 2023 and by 5.6% in 2024;
  • the unemployment rate in 2022 – 8.5%, in 2023 – 8%, in 2024 – 7.8%;
  • growth of exports of goods and services at 6.5% in 2022 with a further increase in growth to 7.7% in 2023 and to 7.9% in 2024.

For reference

The forecast is based on the baseline, most probable scenario, which is based on the analysis of economic development in 2020, the current economic situation resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, its consequences for Ukraine and the world, assumptions that take into account external and internal factors in the future.

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